¿La inversión extranjera directa promueve el crecimiento económico y el autoempleo femenino en Tanzania?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4314/academicus.v3i2.14%20Palabras clave:
Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), Crecimiento económico, Autoempleo femenino, Desarrollo inclusivo, Política macroeconómicaResumen
Este estudio investiga la relación causal entre la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), el Crecimiento Económico (PIB) y el Autoempleo Femenino en Tanzania utilizando datos de series temporales anuales de 1991 a 2023. El objetivo es evaluar si la IED contribuye a la expansión económica y al empleo inclusivo, particularmente entre las mujeres. Empleando un modelo de Autorregresión Vectorial (VAR), el análisis captura las interacciones dinámicas de corto plazo entre las variables macroeconómicas seleccionadas. Se utilizaron pruebas de raíz unitaria y criterios de selección de rezagos para asegurar la robustez del modelo. Se realizaron pruebas de causalidad de Granger para determinar la dirección de la influencia entre las variables. Los hallazgos revelan que si bien el PIB impulsa significativamente la IED y el gasto de consumo final, la IED no tiene un impacto causal de corto plazo en el PIB, lo que indica un papel de seguimiento del crecimiento en lugar de inductor del crecimiento. Además, la IED no muestra una influencia causal directa en el autoempleo femenino, lo que sugiere que las inversiones extranjeras aún no se han traducido en beneficios de empleo inclusivo. El autoempleo femenino, a su vez, ejerce una influencia negativa tanto en el consumo como en la IED, lo que pone de relieve las limitaciones estructurales del sector informal de Tanzania. El estudio concluye que, si bien la IED responde positivamente al crecimiento macroeconómico, no ha contribuido significativamente al empleo de base ni a los vínculos productivos internos. El estudio recomienda reestructurar la política de IED en Tanzania para promover una mayor integración con las empresas locales, en particular las dirigidas por mujeres, mediante la contratación pública inclusiva, la formación y el acceso al crédito. Además, deben fortalecerse los mecanismos institucionales para garantizar que las entradas de IED respalden los objetivos de desarrollo económico y social.
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